The Federal Reserve

Will they stop raising rates?................




10:00 am News
U.S. HOME PRICE GAINS LOWEST IN 10 YEARS
U.S. JUNE HOME INVENTORY 6.8 MONTHS, 9-YEAR HIGH
U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME MEDIAN PRICE UP 0.9% Y-O-Y
U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME INVENTORIES UP 3.8% TO 3.725 MLN
U.S. JUNE HOME SALES ABOVE 6.58 MLN EXPECTED
U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME SALES FALL 1.3% TO 6.62 MLN
U.S. CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HOLD STEADY IN JULY
U.S. JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ABOVE CONSENSUS 103.9
U.S. JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP TO 106.5 VS REV 105.4 JUNE

With the above news this morning one wonders if the Fed will raise rates another quarter point in August. After checking around it would seem so. Even though the news released should dictate a pause, if not a full stop. And it's not just today's news that shows it, It's been showing a major slowdown is on the way for months and months. The thing that gets me is that everytime the consumer confidence comes out a few ticks above the consensus number everyone goes Long Dollar even though other reports say that the dollar should tank. And ya gotta love the way they always tweak the previous months report at the same time, that just makes me wonder who the number crunchers are working for, and do they have their own personal positions they need to cover? hmmmmmmmmmmm?

One would think so sometimes.

The Fed knows well and truly that when they pause or stop raising that their beloved USD will be worth next to nothing and shoot to the basement pretty fast. ( that's part of the reason they always jerk around with the previous month's numbers) I think that the Fed will actually reduce the rate starting in October, because as always, they tend to overshoot when raising.

Bernake and the boys have been saying that they are more dependent on current news lately to dictate the rates. That's because they already know the news is garbage and there's no reason to keep raising, but they love to fear monger with inflation and make everyone in the market nervous as hell. I hope that soon, they Man Up and swallow the pill that says Stop Raising.

LONG EUR is the way to be from Late August onwards. You heard it here first.